Statistical Patterns

 

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The Top 10 Live Poker Tells

The usefulness of live poker tells can vary a lot and it is

important to understand that different players have different patterns. Professional

poker players can have patterns that vary greatly when compared to beginner-level

players. Other tells are common but unreliable, while others are infrequent but very

reliable. These are all reasons why it’s hard to say something like: “Such-and-such is

the most useful poker tell.”

Having said that, recreational poker players often display

the same live poker tells over and over again. Here we will show you 10 of the most

useful poker tells to watch out for.

Before we continue, however, remember that these

are not magic bullets and there can be a lot of variety, especially amongst more

experienced players. Ideally, you should have studied a player beforehand and gained

some indication that the particular tell holds consistent for them. Avoid making “cold

reads” because it’s hard to know, without prior observation, if general behavioral

patterns will apply to a specific player.

1. Defensive Chip Handling

This is when a

waiting-to-act player handles their chips in such a way as to imply that they may be

interested in calling or betting. This will almost always be done defensively, with a

weak or medium-strength hand, in an effort to discourage an opponent from betting.

An

obvious example of this is when a waiting-to-act player on the river grabs their chips

and pushes them slightly forward, as if ready to call a bet. However, defensive chip

handling can be much more subtle. A player might place their hand on, or near, their

chips to subtly imply some interest in betting or calling.

Players who perform

defensive chip handling (and other defensive behaviors) are certainly capable of

calling or folding. But the bigger the bet, the more likely the player will fold. In

fixed limit games, you’ll see a lot of defensive chip handling behavior followed by a

call, because the bets are less consequential. In no-limit games, however, defensive

chip handling will more often be followed by a fold.

While an opponent may call or fold

to a bet, the most important point about this behavior is if you’re fairly sure an

opponent is acting defensively, a raise is unlikely. Ruling out an opponent raising can

enable you to value-bet some borderline hands that you might have otherwise checked.

2.

Stillness Versus Loose Movement

Some players will have tendencies related to how loose

or restrained their bodies are after making significant bets. As a general rule,

bluffing players will tend to be more still than players betting strong hands. This is

related to the primitive physical instinct to “freeze up” and avoid being noticed when

under threat.

But remember that this is a general tendency for tells in poker and

should only be acted upon if you have a good sense that it’s correct for a specific

player.

Often, the most valuable way this pattern shows up is in small, fairly subtle

body movements. For example, let’s say you’ve seen a player making two big river bets

with strong hands. Each time, you noticed that they had a lot of small, relaxed

movements; they played with their chips, flexed their neck a bit, their arms moved

around on the rail, their gaze moved to and from their opponent to the cards and back

again several times, etc.

Later, you study this player when they’re making a big bluff

and, this time, they stared stoically at the board cards and their body was very still.

It’s likely this player has this tendency, and you should make a mental note to keep

studying them in these post-bet situations.

3. Immediate Calls

Of all the bet-timing

tells, immediate calls are probably the most useful, both for online poker and live

games. When a player instantly calls a bet, it means that they have immediately ruled

out a raise. Because players with strong hands are often focused on maximizing value,

this makes it unlikely that the immediate call is made with a strong hand.

If a player

with a strong hand does decide to just call, they will usually take a few seconds to

reach that decision. For these reasons, immediate calls will usually indicate weak or

medium-strength hands.

Immediate calls will be most useful preflop and on the flop,

because this is usually when bets are small enough for players to be capable of calling

quickly. For bigger bets, such as those on the turn, players will tend to think longer

about these bets, no matter what they have.

When it comes to poker tells, immediate

calls can also often rule out strong draws. For example, in no-limit, a player who

calls a bet immediately on a flop of Jc Ts 5c is unlikely to have an ace-high flush

draw or even K-Q. Most players with strong draws will at least consider raising here,

even if they do end up deciding to just call.

If you are bluffing and an opponent

immediately calls you, this may encourage you to follow up with a bluff on the next

street. If you are betting a strong hand, an opponent’s immediate call will often mean

they will be folding to another normal-sized bet. In this case, you may be influenced

to make your next bet smaller, or maybe even to check.

4. Immediate Bets

Immediate bets

are the second most useful bet-timing behavior when it comes to poker tells, behind

immediate calls. Why? Because most players tend to bet faster with bluffs than with

strong hands.

This tends to happen for several reasons:

An immediate decent-sized bet

will usually indicate a polarized range (either strong or weak) . With medium-strength

hands, players are motivated to think about the best possible strategy (whether to bet

or not, how much to bet, etc.). So immediate large bets will typically be bluffs, or

strong hands . In most cases, it’s harder to have a strong hand than it is to have a

weak hand, so there’s a natural bias towards weaker hands.

. With medium-strength

hands, players are motivated to think about the best possible strategy (whether to bet

or not, how much to bet, etc.). So . In most cases, it’s harder to have a strong hand

than it is to have a weak hand, so there’s a natural bias towards weaker hands. With

strong hands, players are more likely to be focused on maximizing value and playing the

hand in the best way possible. This means that there is a natural tendency for players

with strong hands to take some time to think about bet-sizing and other strategic

considerations.

to think about bet-sizing and other strategic considerations. Bluffers

don’t have as much to think about as players with strong hands. A bluffer usually just

knows they have to make a decent-sized bet. Often a bluffer has already decided on the

previous round that they’re going to bluff if they don’t improve; they have a plan in

place, which makes an immediate bet on the next round more likely. This is especially

true for the player who’s been the aggressor in the hand.

Bluffers have a motivation to

seem confident, and one way to appear confident is to bet without too much of a pause.

Conversely, players with strong hands can have the opposite motivation: to seem

uncertain and contemplative. This is also a factor in making immediate bets more likely

to be weak hands.

Even with all these factors, you should remember that this is just a

general tendency. We’ve all seen players make immediate bets with strong hands, and

we’ve all made immediate bets with strong hands. But recognizing that this is a general

pattern can help you spot players who may have very reliable forms of this

pattern.

Also, being aware of this general pattern can help you make up your mind in

borderline situations. For example, if your opponent bets on the river, and you’re

50/50 on whether to call or fold, you might decide to use the immediacy of their bet as

a tie-breaker.

Poker legend Phil Ivey is known for his intimidating stare. (Image:

Chris Wallace)

A lot of past poker tells wisdom dictates that players who stare at you

after betting are more likely to be bluffing. The idea is that these players are trying

to intimidate you not to call. The truth, however, is more complicated. There are

actually two major eye-contact behavioral patterns to watch out for:

Pattern #1: Making

more eye contact after betting a strong hand (due to being relaxed and not being afraid

to interact). Making less eye contact after bluffing (due to being anxious and wanting

to avoid scrutiny).

(due to being relaxed and not being afraid to interact). Making

(due to being anxious and wanting to avoid scrutiny). Pattern #2: Making less eye

contact after betting a strong hand (due to wanting to appear “weak”). Making more eye

contact after bluffing (in order to appear “strong”).

Notice that these are exactly

opposite patterns.

This demonstrates the complexity possible in this type of behavior

and poker tells in general. Some players won’t have any noticeable eye contact

patterns. The point is that some players will have one of these major patterns so it

can be useful to look for them.

The first pattern is more common amongst recreational

players. This is because these players will tend to interact more with their opponents

after betting strong hands, especially after action-ending bets (e.g. all-in bets or

bets on the river). This interaction can take the form of increased eye contact. Most

recreational players, when bluffing, will tend to avoid scrutiny and interaction, which

will lead to less eye contact.

It is worth noting that it is easier to notice eye

contact patterns when you are seated directly across from an opponent, because this

seat placement leads naturally to players looking at each other more often. If players

are sitting beside each other, these kinds of behaviors don’t come up as often.

6.

Staring Defensively

Some players, when holding a vulnerable hand and, waiting for an

opponent to act, will make more eye contact. This is often done in a defensive way to

discourage a bet, in a similar fashion to defensive chip handling.

Players with strong

hands, who don’t mind an opponent betting, or may even want them to, will tend to avoid

behaviors like staring that might discourage action.

As with post-bet eye contact, this

behavior will be more probable when players are sitting directly across from each

other.

The quality of eye contact can also be a clue. For example, some waiting-to-act

players will stare at you in a very intense manner. The quality of their eye contact

makes it even more likely that they’re in defensive mode. That same player’s eyes

might, when they hold a strong hand, have a softer, less confrontational quality.

In

general, the more alert and confrontational the eyes of waiting-to-act players appear,

the weaker their hands will be.

Some fake smiles are easier to spot than others.

(Image: Chris Wallace)

7. Genuine Smiles

Real smiles are much more meaningful and

useful than fake smiles when it comes to tells in poker. A person betting a strong hand

is capable of a wide range of behavior, which may include smiling deeply and sincerely,

smiling insincerely, or not smiling at all. On the other hand, a bluffer will usually

find it difficult to exhibit a sincere, genuine smile.

Recognizing genuine smiles (and

laughter) from players who’ve made significant bets will help you gauge their

relaxation and probable strength. On the other hand, noticing a bettor’s smile as

“fake” will not usually be as useful, because players with strong hands are capable of

having fake smiles.

What are the characteristics of real smiles?

Real smiles are deeper

than fake smiles, involving more of the mouth.

Real smiles involve the muscles of the

eyes . They will often crinkle the outer edges of the eyes, making the well-known

“crow’s feet” pattern.

. They will often crinkle the outer edges of the eyes, making

the well-known “crow’s feet” pattern. Real smiles are more dynamic and more likely to

have many small facial movements associated with them, whereas fake smiles will often

appear “pasted on” and static.

associated with them, whereas fake smiles will often

appear “pasted on” and static. Real smiles are more likely to be symmetrical, usually

involving both sides of the mouth. Fake smiles are often asymmetrical and involve only

one side of the mouth.

Fake smiles will typically only be useful if you have some

player-specific information to base your decision on. For example, you might know that

a player often wears a small fake smile when they’re bluffing. This could perhaps be an

unconscious attempt on their part to communicate confidence. But without prior player

history, a fake smile won’t tell you much.

8. Long Looks at Hole Cards

Players who

stare at their hole cards for a while when initially looking at them are unlikely to

have strong hands. The main reason for this is that players who look at strong cards

will often have an instinct to look away and to not attract attention to their

“treasure.” Players looking at weak cards don’t have this instinct.

This will mostly

come in handy preflop, by ruling out action behind you. For example, you notice two

players behind you staring at their hole cards, and an early-position player raises.

You can now feel more comfortable either 3-betting or calling with a wider range of

hands, knowing that calls or raises from those players behind you have become

unlikely.

Another example. You notice a player in late position staring at their cards

for a few seconds. Then, when the action comes to them, they raise. If you’ve already

noticed this is a generally valuable tell for this particular player, you can adjust

your strategy accordingly, either re-raising them light or opting to only call with

your very strong hands.

This poker tell pattern is most useful preflop but sometimes

will come in handy post-flop. For example, if a player studies the flop and then holds

their hole cards up to study them for a few seconds, it’s unlikely this player has

connected strongly with the flop or has much of a hand at all.

9. Staring at Board

Cards

Many players who connect well with board cards will have a tendency to look away,

at least for a moment. As we’ve said, people have an instinct to avoid attracting their

competitors’ attention to their “treasure.” So, for many players, when they continue

staring steadily at the board cards, it will mean they probably haven’t connected in a

meaningful way.

The more interested or quizzical a player seems to be in the board, the

more likely it is that the player hasn’t connected. A player who connects in a strong

way, even if they continue looking at the flop, is unlikely to draw attention to

themselves by putting on an interested facial expression.

This behavior can be useful

for deciding when to continuation-bet with a weak hand on multi-way flops, or deciding

when to follow up a continuation-bet with a turn bluff.

Remember that this is just a

general tendency that should be correlated first. Many players will consistently stare

at the board cards, no matter what their hand is. This is especially true for more

experienced players.

10. Verbal Defensiveness

Most talking from waiting-to-act players

will be defensive in nature. The two main reasons for this pattern are:

Waiting-to-act

players with strong hands don’t like to draw attention to themselves. People who set

traps don’t usually draw attention to the trap, so players with strong hands yet to act

will tend to be silent .

. Waiting-to-act players with weak hands often know they’re

folding to another bet. They have a motivation to say something, no matter what it is,

to discourage a bet. This helps explain the rather desperate nature of some defensive

statements.

The more a verbal statement can be seen as an obstacle to an opponent’s

action, the more likely it becomes that the statement is said defensively.

An example

of this: the river board is Ac Kh Qh 7s Jc. The waiting-to-act player, who called a

turn bet, now checks while saying to the aggressor, “You can beat ace-queen, huh?”

The

speaker may or may not have AQ, but it’s become very unlikely they have the ten for the

straight. This type of verbal behavior should usually make us feel confident

eliminating the strongest part of a player’s range. Eliminating strong hands can help

us decide when to bluff or when to make a thin value bet.

{nl}

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